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Market Predictions

Track stock and earnings prediction markets with accuracy scoring.

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Prediction Market Analytics

Prediction Market Accuracy Research

We aggregate and archive historical data from Polymarket and Kalshi to evaluate real-world prediction accuracy. Our database tracks thousands of resolved markets and measures performance using Brier scores, hit rates, and time-horizon calibration analysis.

No other public database combines cross-platform prediction market histories with time-horizon accuracy measurement.

4878

Resolved Markets Analyzed

4995

Total Markets Tracked

50%

Directional Hit Rate

Mar 31, 2026

Last Updated

Refreshes hourly

0.221

Brier Score (2-week)

n=36

0.145

Brier Score (1-week)

n=164

0.118

Brier Score (1-day)

n=820

What this page contains

  • • Key Takeaways
  • • Methodology Overview
  • • Accuracy by Time Horizon
  • • Accuracy by Volume
  • • Accuracy by Source
  • • Accuracy by Sector
  • • Accuracy by Company
  • • All Tracked Markets

Key Takeaways

  • •
    Average Brier Score: 0.221 — at 2 weeks horizon (lower is better)
  • •
    Hit Rate: 50% — directional accuracy
  • •
    Markets Scored: 4878 — resolved markets analyzed
  • •
    Markets Tracked: 4995 — active + resolved total

Methodology

How we measure

For each resolved market, we take the market's probability at 1 month, 2 weeks, 1 week, 24 hours, and 12 hours before close and compare it to the actual outcome. The headline Brier score uses the earliest available horizon with data. For recently tracked markets, this is typically 12 hours or 1 day. Over time, as we accumulate more historical data, longer horizons will become available.

What we store

For all open markets we observe and store probabilities at each time horizon. For each market we record the company or index name, sector, volume traded, and actual outcome — so we can report this data back to users.

Worked example

Market: "Will AAPL beat Q4 earnings?"

1 month before close: probability = 72%

Actual outcome: Yes (AAPL beat earnings)

Brier Score: (0.72 - 1)² = 0.078

0 = perfect, 0.25 = random guessing, 1 = always wrong.

Brier Score

(prediction - outcome)². Measures how far the prediction was from what actually happened. Lower is better.

Hit Rate

Percentage of markets where the prediction (>50%) matched the actual outcome. Directional accuracy.

Calibration

Whether predicted probabilities match observed frequencies. If markets say "70% likely," the event should happen ~70% of the time.

Read full methodology →

Avg Brier Score

0.221

At 2 weeks horizon (lower = better)

Hit Rate

50%

Directional accuracy

Markets Scored

4878

Resolved markets analyzed

Markets Tracked

4995

Active + resolved total

Accuracy by Time Horizon

How prediction accuracy changes at different lead times. The headline Brier score uses the earliest available horizon with data (currently 2 weeks). Markets become more accurate as the event approaches.

Time Before EventSample SizeBrier ScoreHit RateAccuracy
2 Weeksn=360.22167%
10 Daysn=720.18672%
1 Weekn=1640.14579%
2 Daysn=2270.11883%
1 Dayn=8200.11884%
12 Hoursn=8220.12184%

Bar shows relative accuracy (Brier score vs. 0.25 random baseline). Markets become more accurate as the event approaches.

Accuracy Over Time Horizons

Blue line: Brier score (lower = better). Green dashed: Hit rate (higher = better). Red dashed line shows the random-guessing baseline.

Calibration Plot

Points near the diagonal line indicate good calibration.

Brier Score by Sector

Lower Brier scores indicate better prediction accuracy.

Accuracy by Volume

Do higher-volume markets produce more accurate predictions? Volume indicates market liquidity and participant interest.

Volume BucketMarketsBrier ScoreHit Rate
< $10K40280.19140%
$10K - $100K7620.03096%
$100K - $1M830.03894%
> $1M50.000100%

Accuracy by Source

Comparing prediction accuracy across different platforms. Horizon breakdowns show how each source performs at different lead times.

kalshi

3823 marketsBrier: 0.200Hit: 37%
HorizonnBrierHit Rate
1 Week340.04194%
2 Days730.04795%
1 Day6500.11086%
12 Hours6520.11286%

polymarket

1055 marketsBrier: 0.029Hit: 96%
HorizonnBrierHit Rate
2 Weeks360.22167%
10 Days720.18672%
1 Week1300.17375%
2 Days1540.15278%
1 Day1700.14878%
12 Hours1700.15377%

Accuracy by Sector

SectorResolvedBrier ScoreHit Rate
Materials20.000100%
Crypto120.000100%
Industrials180.006100%
Streaming460.01798%
Technology4840.01897%
Aerospace50.018100%
Semiconductors1160.01897%
E-commerce470.02198%
Utilities30.023100%
Healthcare270.02896%
Consumer430.03995%
Airlines70.04486%
Retail340.04694%
Automotive560.04891%
Travel480.05492%
Energy2480.05985%
Telecom90.06389%
Insurance90.06889%
Finance3420.08786%
Transportation90.08789%
Fintech100.14080%
Financials33030.22030%

Accuracy by Company

CompanySectorResolvedBrier ScoreHit Rate
PJTTechnology10.000100%
GDAerospace10.000100%
NFLXStreaming290.000100%
LVSTechnology10.000100%
CFinance30.000100%
TSNConsumer20.000100%
STTFinance20.000100%
GPROTechnology10.000100%
UNHHealthcare10.000100%
ASOTechnology10.000100%
HESEnergy10.000100%
LWTechnology20.000100%
DLBTechnology10.000100%
FDXTransportation20.000100%
VSCOTechnology10.000100%
HONIndustrials10.000100%
OTISIndustrials10.000100%
CCLTravel20.000100%
ADBETechnology10.000100%
WFCFinance20.000100%
COURTechnology10.000100%
CBRETechnology10.000100%
HALEnergy20.000100%
DEFTTechnology10.000100%
KEYTechnology20.000100%
CATIndustrials10.000100%
JTOTechnology10.000100%
CRWDTechnology10.000100%
USBFinance20.000100%
MKCConsumer20.000100%
CBRLTechnology10.000100%
RCLTravel10.000100%
CHYMTechnology10.000100%
BRZETechnology10.000100%
APTVAutomotive10.000100%
INTCSemiconductors10.000100%
LYVStreaming10.000100%
APLDTechnology10.000100%
ACNTechnology20.000100%
TSMTechnology10.000100%
HTZTechnology10.000100%
DALAirlines20.000100%
REALTechnology10.000100%
VIRTTechnology10.000100%
BIRDTechnology10.000100%
KSSTechnology10.000100%
GSFinance20.000100%
BZFDTechnology10.000100%
ABTechnology10.000100%
CELHTechnology10.000100%
KMXRetail20.000100%
UNFITechnology20.000100%
BFCTechnology10.000100%
FDSTechnology20.000100%
AVGOSemiconductors20.000100%
ETORTechnology10.000100%
VIKTechnology10.000100%
AMPTechnology10.000100%
FEMYTechnology10.000100%
IVZTechnology10.000100%
RBRKTechnology10.000100%
MDBTechnology10.000100%
COSTRetail10.000100%
MRXTechnology10.000100%
BKFinance20.000100%
UNTYTechnology20.000100%
BENTechnology10.000100%
BACFinance20.000100%
OKTATechnology10.000100%
KMITechnology20.000100%
NTRSTechnology10.000100%
JPMFinance20.000100%
GMERetail90.000100%
CBTTechnology10.000100%
OMCTechnology10.000100%
PNCFinance10.000100%
CXMTechnology10.000100%
LENTechnology10.000100%
CAGConsumer10.000100%
EWBCTechnology10.000100%
EWCZTechnology10.000100%
JNJHealthcare20.000100%
PGConsumer20.000100%
MSFinance20.000100%
JBLUAirlines10.000100%
MUSemiconductors20.000100%
EBTechnology10.000100%
JEFFinance20.000100%
POWLTechnology10.000100%
PAYXTechnology10.000100%
WBTechnology10.000100%
SCHWFinance20.000100%
KRRetail10.000100%
RUMTechnology10.000100%
PLAYTechnology10.000100%
CRCLTechnology10.000100%
SNDKTechnology10.000100%
ANFTechnology10.000100%
SNEXTechnology10.000100%
BLSHTechnology10.000100%
TFCFinance20.000100%
CRLTechnology10.000100%
HPETechnology10.000100%
NOCAerospace10.000100%
HELETechnology10.000100%
MMMIndustrials20.000100%
AEOTechnology10.000100%
ASANTechnology10.000100%
OKLOTechnology10.000100%
GAPTechnology10.000100%
MKTXTechnology10.000100%
PLBYTechnology10.000100%
ATOTechnology10.000100%
LUVAirlines10.000100%
UALAirlines10.000100%
TFXTechnology10.000100%
COFFinance10.000100%
SAMTechnology10.000100%
DBITechnology10.000100%
SMTCTechnology10.000100%
BBWITechnology10.000100%
SSTKTechnology10.000100%
AZORetail10.000100%
PHMTechnology10.000100%
BLKFinance20.000100%
GISConsumer20.000100%
EVRTechnology10.000100%
PCGUtilities10.000100%
FROTechnology10.000100%
BAAerospace10.000100%
LULUConsumer10.000100%
PXLWTechnology10.000100%
IHRTTechnology10.000100%
DOWMaterials20.000100%
WDFCTechnology20.000100%
WTFCTechnology10.000100%
TGTRetail10.000100%
JBLTechnology10.000100%
PRGSTechnology10.000100%
SEICTechnology10.000100%
OTLYTechnology10.000100%
CTASTechnology10.000100%
CLConsumer10.000100%
WWDTechnology10.000100%
FLUTTechnology10.000100%
BYNDTechnology10.000100%
RELLTechnology10.000100%
USARTechnology10.000100%
MTNTechnology10.000100%
DJTStreaming20.000100%
DOCUTechnology10.000100%
BXTechnology10.000100%
GMAutomotive20.000100%
DLTRRetail10.000100%
CASHFinance10.000100%
AZZTechnology10.000100%
DYTechnology10.000100%
CHWYE-commerce10.000100%
RJFTechnology10.000100%
CLXConsumer10.000100%
AVRTechnology10.000100%
MLKNTechnology10.000100%
BRK.BInsurance20.000100%
NKEConsumer20.000100%
SWBITechnology10.000100%
FIVETechnology10.000100%
BCSFTechnology10.000100%
MSCITechnology10.000100%
BBYRetail10.000100%
CFLTTechnology10.000100%
RHTechnology10.000100%
KFYTechnology10.000100%
CNXCTechnology10.000100%
KBHTechnology10.000100%
TDOCTechnology10.000100%
BJTechnology10.000100%
IOTTechnology10.000100%
LEVITechnology10.000100%
ORCLTechnology10.000100%
BDXHealthcare10.000100%
CBInsurance10.000100%
PIPRTechnology10.000100%
SYYRetail10.000100%
UPSTransportation10.000100%
CPBConsumer10.000100%
ALLYTechnology10.000100%
ABTHealthcare10.000100%
DGRetail10.000100%
SONOTechnology10.000100%
EATechnology10.000100%
BURLTechnology10.000100%
GAMBTechnology10.000100%
BYRNTechnology10.000100%
OSTechnology10.000100%
SHOPTechnology10.000100%
SOFIFintech10.000100%
TSCORetail10.000100%
SJMConsumer10.000100%
GBCITechnology10.000100%
EOGEnergy10.000100%
BMBLTechnology10.000100%
FASTIndustrials10.000100%
SQFintech10.000100%
MSFTTechnology420.000100%
AAPLTechnology430.000100%
GOOGLTechnology320.000100%
ETH-USDCrypto70.000100%
METATechnology290.000100%
BTC-USDCrypto50.000100%
PLTRTechnology290.001100%
NVDASemiconductors300.001100%
MSTRTechnology100.001100%
RDDTTechnology20.002100%
QQQFinancials130.002100%
AHealthcare60.003100%
CSCOTechnology20.003100%
MAFinance20.004100%
BBBYTechnology20.005100%
AMDSemiconductors20.005100%
RLConsumer20.006100%
ALLInsurance30.006100%
BKNGTravel20.006100%
PANWTechnology20.007100%
KOConsumer20.007100%
IBMTechnology20.007100%
AMATSemiconductors20.007100%
ICEFinance40.007100%
DDOGTechnology20.007100%
RKLBTechnology140.008100%
EXPETravel20.008100%
CVSHealthcare20.009100%
QCOMSemiconductors20.010100%
APPTechnology20.011100%
XOMEnergy20.011100%
AKAMTechnology20.011100%
HIMSTechnology20.012100%
CBOEFinance20.013100%
WDAYTechnology20.013100%
ACMIndustrials20.013100%
ZITechnology20.013100%
DISStreaming20.013100%
TSLAAutomotive430.01398%
HUBSTechnology20.014100%
PFEHealthcare20.014100%
TSEMSemiconductors20.014100%
ABNBTravel290.01497%
ARMSemiconductors50.015100%
USOEnergy1000.01599%
FOXAStreaming20.015100%
HOODFintech20.015100%
ADISemiconductors20.015100%
ICUITechnology20.016100%
MRKHealthcare10.017100%
WMTRetail20.017100%
INTUTechnology20.017100%
CMEFinance20.017100%
PEPConsumer20.017100%
AMZNE-commerce420.01898%
LHHealthcare20.018100%
KHCConsumer20.019100%
ADSKTechnology20.019100%
EFXTechnology20.021100%
CRMTechnology20.021100%
BUDConsumer20.021100%
VFinance10.021100%
DEIndustrials40.021100%
VZTelecom20.022100%
USFDRetail20.022100%
NETTechnology10.023100%
ELConsumer20.023100%
DASHTechnology20.023100%
WBDStreaming40.024100%
DELLTechnology20.025100%
OXYEnergy20.025100%
MCOFinance20.025100%
CMGConsumer20.025100%
NWSAStreaming20.026100%
MRNAHealthcare20.026100%
TPGFinance10.027100%
CIHealthcare10.029100%
HLTTravel20.030100%
HUMHealthcare20.030100%
DBXTechnology20.031100%
PINSTechnology20.034100%
OPENTechnology150.03593%
TOSTTechnology20.035100%
EDUtilities20.035100%
NXPISemiconductors10.036100%
SPYFinancials1000.03695%
YELPTechnology20.036100%
BGCFinance20.036100%
COINFintech20.036100%
WINGConsumer20.038100%
LZBRetail20.038100%
TWFinance20.039100%
LMTAerospace20.045100%
WENConsumer20.045100%
APOFinance20.050100%
ROKUStreaming20.050100%
WIXTechnology20.050100%
SNOWTechnology20.051100%
MCDConsumer20.051100%
SHAKTechnology20.051100%
EBAYE-commerce20.051100%
FTDRTechnology20.051100%
ASTechnology20.051100%
CHGGTechnology20.053100%
CSGPTechnology20.053100%
IARTTechnology20.053100%
TXNSemiconductors330.05491%
CZRTravel10.055100%
METInsurance20.056100%
MGMTravel20.060100%
LYFTTransportation20.060100%
LLYHealthcare20.065100%
SUNEnergy20.065100%
RBLXTechnology20.065100%
ETSYE-commerce20.065100%
MCHPSemiconductors10.065100%
CVXEnergy20.067100%
HPQTechnology20.068100%
RIVNAutomotive20.070100%
SBUXConsumer20.072100%
TTelecom70.07586%
ONEnergy1650.07776%
MPCEnergy20.078100%
CVNARetail20.078100%
UNPTransportation20.092100%
IONQTechnology10.106100%
TTDTechnology10.106100%
DKNGTechnology20.106100%
ARESFinance50.10780%
HTravel20.118100%
HDRetail20.125100%
AMCTechnology20.125100%
GRABTechnology20.13550%
NDAQFinancials3520.14482%
AALAirlines20.15350%
URBNTechnology20.16550%
IEPTechnology20.16850%
UAAConsumer20.17450%
WMBEnergy30.18067%
CRSPHealthcare20.18350%
YUMConsumer10.198100%
PTONTechnology20.19850%
GTAutomotive20.21150%
HOGAutomotive20.21550%
SGTechnology20.22150%
GEFinance650.22766%
TKOTechnology20.22850%
PARAStreaming20.22850%
PAGAutomotive20.22850%
KKRFinance30.23067%
LOWRetail20.23150%
WRBYTechnology20.23150%
MARFinancials28550.23721%
COPEnergy20.24250%
UBERTransportation20.24250%
DPZConsumer20.25250%
HHHTechnology20.26350%
ORLYRetail20.27450%
AMPLTechnology20.30050%
WAYTechnology20.30450%
NVTSTechnology10.3080%
FISFintech20.30850%
TRIPTravel20.32850%
FAutomotive20.33650%
PYPLFintech20.34050%
AXPFinance20.34450%
SPGIFinance20.34950%
WYNNTravel10.3840%
AFLInsurance10.4830%
BPEnergy10.4970%
TXRHTechnology10.5330%

Included Markets

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