Prediction Market Analytics
We observe and store resolved prediction market data to track accuracy over time. Below you'll find Brier scores, hit rates, and calibration metrics across different time horizons, sources, and sectors.
Methodology
How we measure
For each resolved market, we take the market's probability at 1 month, 2 weeks, 1 week, 24 hours, and 12 hours before close (or the earliest available snapshot if the market existed for less than 30 days) and compare it to the actual outcome. This gives a meaningful accuracy measure — not the trivial ~100% probability at market close when the answer is already known.
What we store
For all open markets we observe and store probabilities at each time horizon. For each market we record the company or index name, sector, volume traded, and actual outcome — so we can report this data back to users.
Worked example
Market: "Will AAPL beat Q4 earnings?"
1 month before close: probability = 72%
Actual outcome: Yes (AAPL beat earnings)
Brier Score: (0.72 - 1)² = 0.078
0 = perfect, 0.25 = random guessing, 1 = always wrong.
Brier Score
(prediction - outcome)². Measures how far the 1-month prediction was from what actually happened. Lower is better.
Hit Rate
Percentage of markets where the 1-month prediction (>50%) matched the actual outcome. Directional accuracy.
Calibration
Whether predicted probabilities match observed frequencies. If markets say "70% likely," the event should happen ~70% of the time.
Avg Brier Score
0.000
At 1-month horizon (lower = better)
Hit Rate
100%
Directional accuracy
Markets Scored
4
Resolved with price history
Markets Tracked
99
Active + resolved total
Accuracy by Time Horizon
How prediction accuracy changes at different lead times. The headline Brier score above uses the earliest available horizon (1 month preferred). This table shows all horizons for comparison.
| Time Before Event | Sample Size | Brier Score | Hit Rate | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Month | n=0 | 0.000 | 0% | |
| 2 Weeks | n=0 | 0.000 | 0% | |
| 1 Week | n=4 | 0.000 | 100% | |
| 1 Day | n=4 | 0.000 | 100% | |
| 12 Hours | n=4 | 0.000 | 100% |
Bar shows relative accuracy (Brier score vs. 0.25 random baseline). Markets become more accurate as the event approaches.
Accuracy Over Time Horizons
Blue line: Brier score (lower = better). Green dashed: Hit rate (higher = better). Red dashed line shows the random-guessing baseline.
Calibration Plot
Points near the diagonal line indicate good calibration.
Brier Score by Sector
Lower Brier scores indicate better prediction accuracy.
Accuracy by Volume
Do higher-volume markets produce more accurate predictions? Volume indicates market liquidity and participant interest.
| Volume Bucket | Markets | Brier Score | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $100K - $1M | 3 | 0.000 | 100% |
| > $1M | 1 | 0.000 | 100% |
Accuracy by Source
Comparing prediction accuracy across different platforms. Horizon breakdowns show how each source performs at different lead times.
polymarket
| Horizon | n | Brier | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week | 4 | 0.000 | 100% |
| 1 Day | 4 | 0.000 | 100% |
| 12 Hours | 4 | 0.000 | 100% |
Accuracy by Sector
| Sector | Resolved | Brier Score | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 4 | 0.000 | 100% |
Accuracy by Company
Included Markets (99)
Resolved markets have closed with a known outcome — these are scored using Brier analysis (prediction at 1 month/2 weeks/1 week/1 day vs actual result). Active markets are still open — they cannot be scored yet because the outcome is unknown. As they resolve, they will be added to the accuracy analysis.
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