Prediction Market Insights & Analysis
Data-driven analysis of prediction market performance. Compare Polymarket vs Kalshi accuracy, explore earnings prediction trends, and discover which markets get it right.
Top Performing Prediction Markets: Where Accuracy Shines
Discover which prediction markets consistently demonstrate the highest accuracy. Analysis of companies, sectors, and conditions that produce reliable predictions.
NFLX
Top Company
Materials
Best Sector
How Accurate Are Prediction Markets for Earnings? 2026 Analysis
Analyzing prediction market performance on earnings-related events. Which companies have the most accurate predictions? Where do markets struggle?
2042
Markets Analyzed
93%
Overall Hit Rate
Where Prediction Markets Got It Wrong: Lessons from Mispredictions
Examining cases where prediction markets failed to accurately forecast outcomes. What can we learn from these misses?
2042
Markets Analyzed
0.221
Overall Brier
Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Prediction Market Is More Accurate?
A data-driven comparison of prediction market accuracy between Polymarket and Kalshi, analyzing Brier scores, hit rates, and performance across different time horizons.
2042
Total Markets
0.029
Polymarket Brier
Monthly Prediction Market Accuracy Report
A comprehensive monthly summary of prediction market performance across platforms, sectors, and companies.
2042
Total Markets
0.221
Avg Brier
About Our Prediction Market Analysis
Our blog provides data-driven insights into prediction market performance. We analyze accuracy metrics from major platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi, track earnings prediction outcomes, and identify trends in market calibration.
Explore our analytics dashboard for real-time accuracy metrics, or visit our methodology page to learn how we calculate Brier scores and hit rates.