Amazon (AMZN) Stock Prediction Market Performance – Polymarket vs Kalshi Accuracy & Prediction Market Overview

Amazon (AMZN) is a major e-commerce company operating in the E-commerce sector. E-commerce companies draw prediction market attention for their growth metrics, competitive dynamics, and seasonal sales performance.

Prediction Accuracy

Across 42 resolved markets, predictions have shown excellent directional accuracy (98% hit rate) with exceptional calibration (Brier score: 0.018).

The Brier score measures how close predictions were to actual outcomes (lower is better, 0 is perfect). The hit rate shows how often the market's favored outcome actually occurred.

What Traders Are Watching

With 15 active prediction markets, traders are currently making forecasts about Amazon's upcoming events. These markets aggregate the collective wisdom of participants who have financial incentives to be accurate, often providing insights that complement traditional analyst forecasts.