About Market Predictions

Prediction markets are exchange-traded markets where participants buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of future events. The price of a contract represents the market's consensus probability that the event will occur.

For example, if a contract "Will Apple beat Q1 earnings?" is trading at $0.72, the market believes there's a 72% chance Apple will exceed analyst estimates. These prices aggregate the knowledge of all market participants, often producing more accurate forecasts than individual analysts.

We aggregate prediction market data from Polymarket and Kalshi, focusing specifically on markets related to publicly traded companies: earnings predictions, stock price targets, and corporate events.

Our platform provides:

• Real-time probability data for active markets
• Historical price charts showing how probabilities change over time
• Sector and company-level accuracy metrics
• Calibration analysis to verify market reliability
• Stock price overlays for context

Data is refreshed multiple times daily via automated snapshots that track probability changes and detect market resolutions.

Market probabilities represent the collective estimate of likelihood, not certainty. A market showing 80% "Yes" means participants believe the event is likely but not guaranteed.

Key things to keep in mind:

• Near 50%: High uncertainty. The market is roughly evenly split.
• 60-70%: Leaning one direction but significant uncertainty remains.
• 80%+: Strong consensus, but ~20% of the time the other outcome occurs.
• 90%+: Very high confidence, though surprises still happen.

Markets with higher volume and liquidity tend to be more reliable, as more participants have contributed their knowledge and capital.

We source data from the following prediction market platforms:

• Polymarket - Decentralized prediction market on Polygon. Known for high liquidity on major events.
• Kalshi - CFTC-regulated prediction market based in the US. Offers structured event contracts.

Stock price data is sourced from Yahoo Finance for real-time price overlays and earnings verification.

This platform is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Prediction market data should not be used as the sole basis for investment decisions.