How Accurate Are Prediction Markets for Earnings? 2026 Analysis

Overview

We analyzed 2042 earnings-related prediction markets with an overall 93% accuracy rate. Here's what the data reveals about prediction market performance for corporate earnings events.

Best Performing Companies

Markets for these companies showed the highest prediction accuracy:

NFLX (NFLX) - 0.000 Brier, 100% hit rate (29 markets)

C (C) - 0.000 Brier, 100% hit rate (3 markets)

GME (GME) - 0.000 Brier, 100% hit rate (9 markets)

MSFT (MSFT) - 0.000 Brier, 100% hit rate (42 markets)

AAPL (AAPL) - 0.000 Brier, 100% hit rate (43 markets)

Accuracy by Sector

Materials: 0.000 Brier score (2 markets)
Crypto: 0.000 Brier score (12 markets)
Industrials: 0.006 Brier score (18 markets)
Streaming: 0.017 Brier score (46 markets)
Technology: 0.018 Brier score (484 markets)

Why Earnings Markets?

Earnings prediction markets are particularly interesting because:

Clear Resolution: Earnings results provide unambiguous outcomes

Information Aggregation: Markets synthesize analyst estimates, insider sentiment, and macro factors

High Stakes: Significant trading volume ensures price discovery

Common Patterns

Markets tend to be most accurate when:

The company has high analyst coverage
Recent price action provides directional signals
Earnings surprise history is consistent

Markets struggle when:

Companies have volatile earnings history
Guidance has been inconsistent
Sector-wide uncertainty exists

Conclusion

Prediction markets demonstrate strong accuracy for earnings events, outperforming random chance significantly. The best markets to follow are those for large-cap companies with consistent earnings patterns.

Analysis based on 2042 resolved markets. Data refreshed 3/8/2026.