analysisPublished Mar 8, 2026(Updated Mar 8, 2026)
Monthly Prediction Market Accuracy Report
A comprehensive monthly summary of prediction market performance across platforms, sectors, and companies.
2042
Total Markets
0.221
Avg Brier
93%
Hit Rate
373
Companies Tracked
Monthly Summary
This month's analysis covers 2042 resolved prediction markets with an overall Brier score of 0.221 and 93% hit rate.
Platform Performance
| Platform | Brier Score | Hit Rate | Markets | |----------|-------------|----------|---------| | Polymarket | 0.029 | 96% | 1055 | | Kalshi | 0.079 | 90% | 987 |
Top Performers This Month
- NFLX: 0.000 Brier score
- C: 0.000 Brier score
- GME: 0.000 Brier score
Sector Breakdown
- Financials: 608 markets, 86% accuracy
- Technology: 484 markets, 97% accuracy
- Finance: 263 markets, 96% accuracy
- Energy: 186 markets, 96% accuracy
- Semiconductors: 116 markets, 97% accuracy
Horizon Accuracy
How accuracy improves as markets approach resolution:
- 2 Weeks: 0.221 Brier (36 samples)
- 10 Days: 0.186 Brier (72 samples)
- 1 Week: 0.158 Brier (147 samples)
- 2 Days: 0.124 Brier (232 samples)
- 1 Day: 0.126 Brier (708 samples)
- 12 Hours: 0.129 Brier (710 samples)
Key Takeaways
Looking Ahead
Monitor markets for NFLX, C, GME which have shown consistent accuracy. Be cautious with low-volume markets and novel event types.
Report generated 3/8/2026. Data reflects all resolved markets in the analysis period.
Topics
monthly-reportaccuracysummary