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Home/Markets/Will TSMC (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?

Will TSMC (TSM) beat quarterly earnings?

Current Market Odds

95.5%Yes
4.5%No

Markets currently price a 96% chance of YES.

Source:Polymarket
Status:active
Updated: Jul 10, 2026

As of market creation, TSMC is estimated to release earnings on July 16, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for TSMC's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.88 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if TSMC reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.88 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If TSMC releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: TSM trades on the New York Stock Exchange in ADR which represent 5 ordinary shares of the company. This market refers to earnings per ADR. Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

TSMTechnologypolymarketactive

Volume

$2.2K

Liquidity

$3.4K

Start Date

Jul 2, 2026

End Date

Jul 16, 2026

Current Probabilities

Yes95.5%
No4.5%

About This Market

This market asks whether Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur will beat earnings expectations before July 16, 2026.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur (TSM) is a leading semiconductor company in the Semiconductors sector.

As of today, the market implies a roughly 96% probability of this outcome.

With the market pricing this at 96%, traders consider this outcome highly likely. However, prediction markets can shift quickly if new information emerges.

Probability Over Timewith stock price overlay

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