MP
Market Predictions
HomeMarketsCompaniesAnalyticsBlogAbout
HomeMarketsCompaniesAnalyticsBlogAbout
MP
Market Predictions

Track stock and earnings prediction markets with accuracy scoring.

Browse

  • All Markets
  • All Companies
  • Analytics

Data Sources

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi

Resources

  • Blog
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • About

Data sourced from Polymarket and Kalshi. Not financial advice.

//
Home/Markets/Will Jefferies (JEF) beat quarterly earnings?

Will Jefferies (JEF) beat quarterly earnings?

Current Market Odds

40.0%Yes
60.0%No

Markets currently price a 40% chance of YES.

Source:Polymarket
Status:active
Updated: Sep 18, 2026

As of market creation, Jefferies is estimated to release earnings on September 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Jefferies's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.95 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jefferies reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.95 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Jefferies releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

JEFFinancepolymarketactive

Volume

$1.2K

Liquidity

$346.38

Start Date

Sep 16, 2026

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Current Probabilities

Yes40.0%
No60.0%

About This Market

This market asks whether Jefferies Financial Group will beat earnings expectations before September 30, 2026.

Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) is a leading financial services company in the Finance sector.

As of today, the market implies a roughly 60% probability of this outcome.

With odds near 50/50, the market sees genuine uncertainty here. This represents an opportunity where new information could swing sentiment decisively in either direction.

Probability Over Timewith stock price overlay

Coming in Pro
Coming in Pro
Coming in Pro

Related Markets

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

ICE14%

Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by December 31?

NDAQ90%

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 6.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

TXN50%

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

TXN50%

Company

View all Jefferies Financial Group markets

Learn More

About Polymarket →
How we measure accuracy →
What is a prediction market? →