Accuracy & Methodology
How well do prediction markets forecast stock and earnings outcomes? We track every resolved market and calculate accuracy metrics using the Brier score.
How We Measure Accuracy
Brier Score measures the accuracy of probabilistic predictions. It ranges from 0 (perfect) to 1 (worst possible). A Brier score of 0.25 is equivalent to random guessing.
Formula: For each prediction, we calculate (forecast - outcome)², where outcome is 1 if the event happened and 0 if it didn't. Lower scores mean better accuracy.
Hit Rate is the percentage of markets where the most likely outcome (probability > 50%) matched the actual result. A higher hit rate means markets are directionally correct more often.
Calibration measures whether predicted probabilities match observed frequencies. If markets say "70% likely," the event should happen about 70% of the time.
Average Brier Score
0.000
Lower is better (0 = perfect)
Hit Rate
100%
Directional accuracy
Markets Resolved
4
Total tracked resolutions
Accuracy by Time Horizon
How accurate are prediction markets at different lead times before the event? Measured by snapshotting market probabilities at fixed intervals before resolution, stopping at least 12 hours before earnings are released.
| Time Before Event | Sample Size | Brier Score | Hit Rate | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Month | n=0 | 0.000 | 0% | |
| 2 Weeks | n=0 | 0.000 | 0% | |
| 1 Week | n=4 | 0.000 | 100% | |
| 1 Day | n=4 | 0.000 | 100% | |
| 12 Hours | n=4 | 0.000 | 100% |
Bar shows relative accuracy (Brier score vs. 0.25 random baseline). Markets become significantly more accurate as the event approaches, with the biggest improvement between 1 month and 1 week out.
Accuracy Over Time Horizons
Blue line: Brier score (lower = better). Green dashed: Hit rate (higher = better). Red dashed line shows the random-guessing baseline.
Calibration Plot
Points near the diagonal line indicate good calibration.
Brier Score by Sector
Lower Brier scores indicate better prediction accuracy.
Accuracy by Sector
| Sector | Resolved | Brier Score | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 4 | 0.000 | 100% |